Election Sees Massive Tory Gains Among South Asians
(Image courtesy of CBC)
For the longest time, the South Asian community, particularly Sikh-Canadians, was seen as a reliable Liberal voting bloc. In 2021, the riding of Surrey-Newton, which is 67 percent South Asian, sent Liberal MP Sukh Dhaliwal back to Ottawa by a margin of 28 percent, the highest Liberal win by percentage in all of BC. Dhaliwal’s margin of victory was higher than other prominent Liberals in the Lower Mainland, such as Hedy Fry, Jonathan Wilkinson, Patrick Weiler, and former colleagues Joyce Murray and Harjit Sajjan.
However, in the 2025 election, Fry, Wilkinson, and Weiler were reelected with way higher margins than Dhaliwal, who only won his district by a dismal 6 percentage points. This was a 22 percent swing to Dhaliwal’s closest opponent, but more impressively, however, Surrey-Newton's second-place finisher was not a member of the NDP as usually expected, but a member of the Conservatives. In 2021, Surrey-Newton’s Conservative candidate Syed Mohsin finished with only 16 percent of the vote. In 2025, Conservative candidate Harjit Singh Gill was able to secure 44 percent of the vote, a 28-point jump.
South Asian Shift Sign of Broader Trend
One may think that this swing is isolated to this singular riding. Maybe Dhaliwal himself isn’t as popular as he once was. But looking at other ridings where South Asians make up a sizeable population segment, a pattern becomes clear. In Surrey Centre, which is 40 percent South Asian, the Conservatives gained 19 points from 2021. In Fleetwood-Port Kells, which is 35 percent South Asian, the Conservatives gained 11 points from the last election.
This shift was not just isolated to British Columbia. The ridings of Brampton East, Brampton North-Caledon, Brampton South, and Mississauga-Malton in Ontario, which have high South Asian populations, saw double-digit swings for the Conservatives, making some seats considered safe a lot closer. In Brampton West, the shift was so big that the Conservative candidate Amarjeet Gill was able to beat the Liberal incumbent Kamal Khera, who won by 27 points in 2021.
Reasons For the Shift Are Complex
This is not surprising to BC politicos. Results in Surrey do closely match with the results in last year’s BC election, where ridings considered NDP strongholds were a lot closer than expected, with even high-profile NDP MLAs Rachna Singh and Jenny Sims losing their seats. This was mainly due to backlash against the provincial government’s lagging progress on housing, education, healthcare, and cost of living. Ontario also has similar issues, and in Brampton, where a lot of South Asians in Ontario reside, it has a full Ontario Progressive Conservative delegation. It appears that the incumbent Liberals also faced some of that backlash as well.
Another theory could be with the leader. Many Indo-Canadians are fond of Pierre Elliott Trudeau due to his policies of welcoming them into the country. Many are still loyal to the Liberal banner, clearly enough to win the ridings discussed. Thus, it's not entirely unthinkable to think Justin Trudeau perhaps helped Liberals to overperform in these ridings due to the power of the Trudeau name in 2015, 2019, and 2021.
BC NDP, Liberals Should Not Get Complacent
While the provincial NDP and federal Liberals can rest easy knowing that they have a fresh mandate, current results in Surrey may not hold. As many older, loyal South Asian Liberals die off, their children who grew up in Canada may not continue to vote like their parents, particularly if their concerns are not addressed.
