Liberals open 13-point lead over Conservatives: poll

The governing Liberals have widened their national lead to 13 points over the Conservatives, while Prime Minister Mark Carney holds a commanding advantage as the preferred choice for prime minister, a new Research Co. poll suggests.

The online survey of 1,001 Canadian adults, conducted February 4 to February 6, found 45 percent of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Liberal candidate in their riding. That is up two points since September 2025.

The Conservatives trailed at 32 percent, down six points over the same period.

Support for other parties remained in the single digits. The New Democrats stood at 10 percent, followed by the Bloc Québécois at seven percent, the Green Party at three percent and the People’s Party at two percent. One percent backed other parties or independent candidates.

The Liberals led in Atlantic Canada with 54 percent compared with 37 percent for the Conservatives. They were also ahead in British Columbia at 46 percent to 33 percent and in Ontario at 46 percent to 38 percent.

In Quebec, the Liberals were at 43 percent, well ahead of the Bloc at 29 percent and the Conservatives at 17 percent. The Conservatives held a 10-point advantage over the Liberals in Alberta, with 44 percent support compared with 34 percent for the Liberals.

(Visuals courtesy Angus Reid Institute.)

The governing party led among both men and women and across all age groups measured. Among male decided voters, 44 percent backed the Liberals compared with 34 percent for the Conservatives. Among women, the numbers were 46 percent to 31 percent.

The Liberals held particularly strong advantages among the Silent Generation and baby boomers at 51 percent compared with 31 percent for the Conservatives. Among millennials, support stood at 43 percent for the Liberals and 30 percent for the Conservatives. The gap narrowed among Generation Z voters at 38 percent to 33 percent and among Generation X at 41 percent to 37 percent.

Asked to identify the most important issue facing the country, 21 percent of respondents cited the economy and jobs. Housing, homelessness and poverty followed at 18 percent. Canada-US relations and healthcare were each named by 16 percent, while 11 percent pointed to immigration.

Carney recorded the highest approval rating among federal leaders at 55 percent. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre stood at 39 percent, an eight-point decline since September.

On the question of who would make the best prime minister, 44 percent chose Carney, compared with 25 percent for Poilievre.

Carney was seen as better suited to handle 10 of the 11 issues tested in the survey, including foreign affairs, Canada-US relations, the economy and jobs, health care and national unity. The two leaders were tied at 35 percent each on crime and public safety.