OPINION: What Is Doug Ford's Plan?
(Image courtesy of CBC)
With declining poll numbers and the party seeming to be in purgatory after a shocking election loss, the Conservatives are at a crossroads. They either double down on Poilievre or take a different path with a potentially new leader, the fifth in a little over a decade. With the Battle River—Crowfoot byelection, where Conservative Leader Poilievre is running, set to take place on August 18, the question will be not if Poilievre wins but how much he wins by. If Poilievre fails to win at least 70 percent of the vote there, his already tough position may become more turbulent.
While Conservative MPs are publicly backing Poilievre at the moment, ultimately, like most politicians, they prioritize getting reelected over loyalty to a political figure. Take a look at how many Liberals went from publicly backing Trudeau to throwing their hat behind Carney within an instant if it meant a greater chance of political success.
That being said, Poilievre currently has no competitors within the party. All of the well-known Conservative MPs are solidly behind the Poilievre banner, and even if the caucus ousted him, he could just run for leadership and win again, a likely scenario given how popular he is with the Conservative base.
The only Conservative politician in the country who could, in theory, reasonably put a significant challenge to Poilievre is Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario. Ford, fresh off his third majority victory in Ontario, has positioned himself as a potential successor, even apparently learning French. If Poilievre were to decide to step aside, Ford would likely become a frontrunner in the race due to name recognition alone.
That being said, his current strategy is strange to say the least. He recently complimented Prime Minister Carney, saying that he is “very humble,” “a smart businessperson,” and that he has “every confidence” that Carney will get a good trade deal with the Americans. While Ford may truly believe this, his rhetoric is strange if he wants to run for the Conservative leadership.
Regardless of what is to be said about Pierre Poilievre, he has created new coalitions for the Conservative Party. He has brought in a lot of money and supporters who may have never voted for the Conservatives or voted at all, and won handily against his opponents in the 2022 leadership race.
If any Conservative wants to win the leadership, they are going to have to win at least some of the true blue Poilievre base and bring in new people into the party. Ford is not endearing himself to the true blue faction due to his compliments of the government, and many of the red Tories may just stick with Carney if they think he’s doing a good job, giving Ford no lane for victory.
While Ford’s position as the Ontario Premier may make him more diplomatic compared to Pierre Poilievre or other members of the opposition, he could break more with Carney forcefully on other issues. However, he has not done so, only recently critiquing the federal government when it came to immigration, but being careful to condemn Immigration Minister Lena Diab and not Carney himself.
Ultimately, if Ford has federal ambitions, he needs to be more critical of Carney himself. The Prime Minister’s honeymoon will end someday, and if Mr. Ford wants to position himself as the leader of the right-wing movement in Canada, he needs to find areas of differentiation between himself and the PMO. Canadian elections have shown that if given an option between Liberals and Liberal Lite, Canadians will vote for the Liberals. While it's possible that a year from now, the Canadian political landscape could change dramatically as it has compared to this time last year, politicians who bet on miracles are often going to be left at the altar waiting.
