Liberals surge ahead as Canadians turn against US, new report finds

The federal Liberals have opened up a 13-point advantage over the Conservatives as Canadians grow more wary of the United States and favour a hard line in trade negotiations, according to a new Angus Reid Institute survey published February 24, 2026.

The poll, conducted online from February 20 to February 23 among a randomized sample of 1,650 Canadian adults, finds 45 percent of respondents say they would vote Liberal if a federal election were held today, compared with 32 percent who prefer the Conservatives. Angus Reid says the 13-point gap represents a 10-point increase in the Liberals’ advantage compared with the previous month’s tracking.

The institute reports Canadians’ views of the United States under President Donald Trump have fallen sharply, with 21 percent holding a favourable view of the country. It also finds Canadians are three times as likely to say Canada should approach the US as “a potential threat or with caution” — 69 percent — as to treat it as “a friend or ally,” at 22 percent.

That skepticism is reflected in trade attitudes. Angus Reid says 67 percent prefer taking a hard line in negotiations, while 33 percent prefer a soft approach.

The survey suggests Prime Minister Mark Carney is receiving credit for how he has handled the file. Angus Reid finds 64 percent say Carney has done a “good or great job” managing Canada–US relations, and 63 percent approve of his overall performance as prime minister.

Angus Reid’s release also points to a dramatic change in how Canadians define the relationship with Washington. As recently as 2023, it says, three-quarters viewed the United States as a friend or valued ally. In the new results, that share is down to one-quarter, while 35 percent say the US should be approached cautiously and 34 percent say it should be viewed as a threat to Canada’s interests.

(Courtesy Angus Reid Institute).

The institute finds the Liberal lead is concentrated in key regions. It reports the party is first in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada — including leads of 12 points over the Conservatives in Ontario and 33 points in Atlantic Canada — while races are close in British Columbia, Manitoba and Alberta.

In Alberta, Angus Reid says Carney is viewed more positively than Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. The release puts Carney’s approval at 54 percent in the province, compared with 45 percent favourability for Poilievre. It also notes Carney reached a memorandum of understanding with Alberta in the fall, but says there remains an April 1 deadline for Ottawa and Premier Danielle Smith’s government to settle outstanding issues related to carbon capture and industrial carbon taxes. The release adds that Smith’s demanded pipeline “is still theoretical.”

Nationally, the institute describes a challenging picture for Poilievre beyond the Conservative base. One-third of Canadians — 33 percent — view him favourably, while 60 percent view him unfavourably, matching highs and lows in Angus Reid tracking since he became leader. The institute also reports Poilievre is viewed more favourably by men than women, but that majorities of both hold an unfavourable view.

The poll’s methodology notes the sample was drawn from the Angus Reid Forum online panel and weighted to census benchmarks. Angus Reid says a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for comparison purposes.